Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 31, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$382.4K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 31, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 53% on 7 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 56 daily closes on record from 7 Nov 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 71% on 17 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 39.5% on 18 Nov 2025. $382.39K traded over the market's life.

151 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:30 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 7 Nov 2025 – 31 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
7 Nov 2025	53.0%
31 Dec 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
eNakeVets	Yes	36.46K
Pancp	Yes	3.59K
bf6-grandpa	Yes	3.5K

10 of 151 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any point any Google Gemini 3 model has at least the specified arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) by December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.