Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 10 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 245 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20.5% on 10 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 10% on 12 Oct 2025. $741.07K traded over the market's life.
384 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 245 points, 10 Oct 2025 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | 20.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| nottony | Yes | 6.29K |
| Spotted-Chasuble | Yes | 3.59K |
| Regular-Proofreader | Yes | 2.72K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025
| Alyosm | Yes | 2.36K |
| villiamg | Yes | 2.32K |
| Content-Intuition | Yes | 1.83K |
| tiger5511 | Yes | 1.81K |
| Illustrious-Kale | Yes | 1.77K |
| Splendid-Macaroni | Yes | 1.67K |
| Impractical-Voting | Yes | 1.57K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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