Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 35% on 12 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 81 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 35% on 12 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.8% on 21 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 9.5% on 13 Apr 2025. $10.78K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 81 points, 12 Apr 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2025 | 35.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 67 |
| mspro | Yes | 20.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a market on predictions related to the advancements and implications of the second phase of the ARC AGI project.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-ai-score-on-arc-agi-2
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 0.01 |
