Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 26% on 22 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 22 Nov 2025 to 4 Dec 2025, the highest close was 26% on 22 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 9% on 23 Nov 2025. $35.99K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 5, 12:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 22 Nov 2025 – 4 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | 26.0% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Raw-Wasabi | Yes | 1.88K |
| nXiBIawcJU | Yes | 631.7 |
| wylzub | Yes | 428.68 |
| Drizzy-Ted | Yes | 42.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The second iteration of Nof1's Alpha Arena AI trading competition, Alpha Arena Season 1.5, launched on November 19, 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any AI model listed on the NOF1.ai leaderboard reaches or exceeds $50,000 total account value at any point before the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition concludes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Results from the leaderboard displayed on https://nof1.ai/leaderboard, showing the account value for each model, will be used to resolve this market. If every AI model's account value equals zero before reaching $50,000, all will be considered eliminated, and this market may resolve “No” immediately. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard becomes available and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable or if the competition does not finish, this market will resolve based on the latest reliable reports available.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-ai-reach-50k-in-alpha-arena-season-1pt5-ai-trading-competition
| triklozoid | Yes | 14 |
| iamlosing1111 | Yes | 10 |
| Bohemian | No | 0.04 |
| linux.xx1 | No | 0.01 |
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