Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.9%. Yes opened at 45% on 5 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 165 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 1 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 56.5% on 18 Apr 2026 and the lowest 3% on 1 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 29.5% on 28 Apr 2026. $11.72K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 165 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 45.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 3.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Practical-Downforce | Yes | 56.5 |
| a5533 | Yes | 36.99 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 36.22 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30
| jfkjdfj3 | Yes | 20 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 11.7 |
| the-hedgehog-2 | Yes | 10 |
| Golden Lynx 44F3 | Yes | 5.61 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| 69dsfs | Yes | 2.85 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 2.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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