Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 15 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 80 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 70% on 2 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 66% on 19 Nov 2025. $537.36K traded over the market's life.
140 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 15 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches an Arena Score of 1500+ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the “Arena Score” section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/. If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-ai-model-reach-1500-on-chatbot-arena-by-dec-31
| Yes |
| 1.21K |
| tester169 | Yes | 1K |
| Illo | Yes | 737.53 |
| notmyrodrick | Yes | 705.9 |
| SS787878 | Yes | 680.55 |
| Tillubadmosh | Yes | 602.01 |
| grillz | Yes | 495.45 |
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