Analytics
Yes is at 52.5%, up 44 points from 9% when the market opened on 6 Aug 2026.
Across the 82 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64.5% on 19 Aug 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 10 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 42.5%; a month before, 23%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 44% on 11 Aug 2026.
Antonio Martín del Campo is the favourite of the 15 outcomes in “Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner”, ahead of Leonardo Montañez Castro at 32.5%.
$172.62 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $15.98K since listing. The order book holds $23.3K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 335 trades, $2.43K bought Yes and $1.49K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Jade Tide 4719 with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 92.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 9.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 52.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.85K |
| Jade Tide 4719 | Yes | 1.06K |
| Hot-SkullHomelessBegger | Yes | 550.62 |
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Aguascalientes on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Aguascalientes and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Aguascalientes and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/aguascalientes-governor-election-winner-20260803170329
3 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 457.9 |
| 0x49F206 | Yes | 405 |
| Haradwaith | No | 320.42 |
| mariacryptoss | No | 211.16 |
| Solar Ledger 05AA | No | 121.73 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 82.84 |
| 7figtc | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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