Will António Filipe win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$28.4K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 2.1% on 4 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 4 Dec 2025 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 2.1% on 4 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Jan 2026. $28.37K traded over the market's life.

31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 9:29 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 4 Dec 2025 – 19 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Dec 2025	2.1%
19 Jan 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	259.9K
Novus0rdoSeclorum	Yes	21.95K
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	20.94K

10 of 31 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).