Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 61.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 30 Jul 2026 and the low 22% on 8 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 45.5% on 11 Aug 2026. $221.43 traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 19 points · 30 Jul 2026 – 17 Aug 2026 · axis zoomed to 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 17 Aug 2026 | 38.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic removes access to "Claude Fable 5" from qualifying paid plans by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying removal requires Fable 5 to no longer be included within standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on all of the Pro, Max, or Team plans. Moving Fable 5 to usage-credit-only access on all paid plans will qualify. Removing included access only from some of these plans will not qualify. Access through the Enterprise plan will not be considered. Announcements alone will not qualify. Qualifying paid-plan access must actually be removed by the listed date. The percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as Fable 5 remains available within the included allowance. Reducing the percentage cap, without fully removing included access, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110
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