Will another party win the most seats in the next German election?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 24, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$28.3M

Resolved

Settled

Feb 24, 2025 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 24 Feb 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 0.3% on 17 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 70 daily closes on record from 17 Dec 2024 to 24 Feb 2025, the price held at 0.4%. $28.3M traded over the market's life.

233 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 25, 12:51 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 70 points, 17 Dec 2024 – 24 Feb 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	4.67M
Siziriv	Yes	85.89K
Aaron88	Yes	20K

10 of 233 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are expected to tale place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any party other than SPD, CDU/CSU, AfD, Greens, FDP or BSW wins the most seats in the Bundestag (Germany's lower house) as a result of the next German parliamentary election. If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by an individual party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the final total number of seats won by each party, including any overhang mandates (Überhangmandate) and balancing mandates (Ausgleichsmandate), as reflected in the official results. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).