Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5% on 25 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2024 to 6 Aug 2024, the highest close was 5% on 25 Jul 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Jul 2024. $1.26M traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 7, 9:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 25 Jul 2024 – 6 Aug 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2024 | 5.0% |
| 6 Aug 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 363.31K |
| aleph-1 | Yes | 2.88K |
| fuckingretarded | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a man other than Wes Moore, Pete Buttigieg, Mark Kelly, Robert Kennedy Jr., Gavin Newsom, Mark Cuban, Josh Shapiro, Joe Manchin, Mitt Romney, Roy Cooper, Raphael Warnock, J. B. Pritzker, Andy Beshear, Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown, or John Fetterman wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
