Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 29 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 52.5% on 29 Dec 2025 and the low 0.3% on 1 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 27.5% on 30 Dec 2025. $156.36K traded over the market's life.
96 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 5:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 89 points · 29 Dec 2025 – 1 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2025 | 52.5% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FTX2.0 | Yes | 2.15K |
| Keen Harbor 2B11 | Yes | 1.49K |
| Coudlofbeenban | Yes | 1.47K |
| Fshawwa | Yes | 1.16K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-another-country-recognize-somaliland-by-march-31
| Ashamed-Ridge | Yes | 954.19 |
| dagaal93 | Yes | 656.21 |
| Danstradamus | Yes | 638.29 |
| herewe | Yes | 384.62 |
| WannaBetNot3000 | Yes | 256.78 |
| Arhiman | Yes | 238.71 |
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