Analytics
Yes is at 79%, up 47 points from 32.5% when the market opened on 11 Jul 2026.
Across the 107 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 85.5% on 26 Aug 2026 and the lowest 31% on 21 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 77.5%; a month before, 77.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 56% on 7 Aug 2026.
Angela Gonzales-Torres is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)”, ahead of Jimmy Gomez at 21.5%.
$192.24 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $14.54K since listing. The order book holds $20.74K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 342 trades, $4.61K bought Yes and $994.35 bought No; the largest was a $1.66K buy of Yes at 78.2¢.
The largest Yes position is 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 with 3.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.4K. Ten wallets hold 89.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 107 points, 11 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2026 | 32.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 79.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.39K |
| 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | Yes | 3.09K |
| Leclerc04 | No | 952 |
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-34-house-election-winner-individual-20260710020736883
| Hyperlong | Yes | 804.86 |
| yoyoyo543 | Yes | 716.33 |
| sweetj | Yes | 513.71 |
| cigarettes | No | 385.41 |
| donthackme | No | 379.8 |
| kittycat67 | Yes | 199 |
| bananabreakfast | No | 133.69 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
