Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 45% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 204 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 5 Aug 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45% on 23 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 10.5% on 24 Dec 2025. $682.86 traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 5, 4:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 204 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 5 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 45.0% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 625.05 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 80.66 |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/michigan-republican-senate-primary-winner-954
| sirmisterk | Yes | 50.79 |
| pd.unique | Yes | 20.18 |
| huyewell | Yes | 14.75 |
| Ivory Quasar 70A8 | Yes | 14 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10.09 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 6.54 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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