Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 22.5%. Yes opened at 41% on 27 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 45 daily closes on record from 27 Jan 2026 to 12 Mar 2026, the highest close was 48% on 28 Jan 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 9 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 14.5% on 9 Mar 2026.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 13, 5:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 27 Jan 2026 – 12 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2026 | 41.0% |
| 12 Mar 2026 | 22.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ganjubas22 | No | 146.43 |
| Awestin.eth | No | 100 |
| AClockworkOrange | No | 71.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone on the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list (https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten) is captured by United States law enforcement authorities between market issuance and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A fugitive being captured is defined as the fugitive being arrested by United States law enforcement authorities, voluntarily surrendering to United States law enforcement authorities, being extradited by a non-US entity to United States law enforcement authorities, or otherwise being taken into formal custody by United States law enforcement authorities. An individual on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list being captured by a non-US entity, without subsequent extradition or equivalent transfer into United States law enforcement custody, will not count. Captures by United States forces overseas will count. Only individuals who are on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list at the time of their capture will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from United States law enforcement authorities and/or United States local, state or federal government entities; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-an-fbi-top-ten-most-wanted-fugitive-be-captured-by-march-31
| No |
| 40 |
| zhanglu | No | 29.87 |
| commonraccoon | No | 26.83 |
| daroghi | No | 22.65 |
| jaya2 | No | 22 |
| hesure | No | 20 |
| Secondary-Utilisation | No | 15.87 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
