Analytics
Yes is at 6.8%, down 23 points from 30% when the market opened on 1 Aug 2026.
Across the 82 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 42.5% on 4 Aug 2026 and the lowest 1.3% on 8 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.2%; a month before, 3.9%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 13.5% on 5 Aug 2026.
Air Force Falcons ranks fourth of the 10 outcomes in “NCAA Football 2026 Mountain West Conference: Winner”. New Mexico Lobos leads at 55.5%; North Dakota State Bison is at 16.5%.
$688.77 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.77K, with a 7.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 35 trades, $22.25 bought Yes and $262.62 bought No.
The largest Yes position is ABC12345654321 with 247 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 419.
Trading closes on 19 Dec 2026, 50 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 1 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 30.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 418.95 |
| ABC12345654321 | Yes | 247.19 |
| Vibrant-Dragonfly | Yes | 177.01 |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Mountain West Football Championship Game, determining the champion of the Mountain West Conference for the 2026 college football season, currently scheduled for December 4, 2026. If this championship is postponed after December 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared co-champions, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Mountain West Conference (https://themw.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ncaa-football-2026-mountain-west-conference-winner-20260731204734105
| DRalchemy | Yes | 76.21 |
| algo168 | No | 65 |
| macrosteaks | No | 56 |
| extractive-manatee | No | 40.67 |
| ebk. | Yes | 25 |
| JakeBeez | Yes | 20 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 14.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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