Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 5-10%?

worldResolved

No, settled Sep 21, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$6.4K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 21, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 21 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.4%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 12 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2026 to 21 Sep 2026, the highest close was 33.5% on 13 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.6% on 21 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 23.5% on 14 Sep 2026. $6.43K traded over the market's life.

16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 12 Sep 2026 – 21 Sep 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Sep 2026	31.5%
21 Sep 2026	2.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	710.72
BlueBase-568	Yes	312.27
e46m3	Yes	104.8
tcs-312	Yes	79.41

10 of 16 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory

Dates

Topic room