Will AfD win 50 or more seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

politicsResolved

No, settled Sep 7, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$54.0K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 7, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 7 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 15% on 26 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 26 Jul 2026 to 7 Sep 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 17% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 9.5% on 31 Jul 2026. $53.99K traded over the market's life.

42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 26 Jul 2026 – 7 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
26 Jul 2026	15.0%
7 Sep 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	25K
vamnizar	Yes	8.36K
MaxasRena	Yes	4.13K

10 of 42 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election. If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).