Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 31 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2024 to 1 Feb 2025, the highest close was 25.5% on 1 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 23.4% on 5 Jan 2025. $322.7K traded over the market's life.
59 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 7:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 31 Dec 2024 – 1 Feb 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2024 | 21.5% |
| 1 Feb 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| buyingdips | Yes | 6.92K |
| Toby2143 | Yes | 5.08K |
| edwinjr898 | Yes | 2.97K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
During an X space discussing H-1B visas, it was pointed out that Adrian Dittman's voice (@AdrianDittman) sounded much like Elon Musk's put through a filter. This market will resolve to "Yes" Adrian Dittman (https://x.com/AdrianDittmann) proves he is not Elon Musk by 11:59 PM ET, January 31, 2025. If he does not offer conclusive proof by then, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a preponderance of credible evidence from Adrian Dittman.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-adrian-dittman-prove-hes-not-elon-musk
| Yes |
| 2.92K |
| yojimboking | Yes | 2.62K |
| 1952flyoverdc | Yes | 1.4K |
| Asculpus | Yes | 604.81 |
| BiggusNiggus | Yes | 543.23 |
| alias-nemo | Yes | 500.01 |
| Madalius | Yes | 434.33 |
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