Analytics
Resolved Yes on 15 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 41% on 24 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2025, the highest close was 99.7% on 15 Oct 2025 and the lowest 41% on 24 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 66% on 25 Sep 2025. $83.47K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 16, 8:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 24 Sep 2025 – 15 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2025 | 41.0% |
| 15 Oct 2025 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 88.54K |
| Emerald Pioneer C5D8 | No | 642.16 |
| Cookedtan | No | 250.39 |
| mikeegogo | No | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Adelita Grijalva in the 2025 special election for Arizona's 7th Congressional District to replace former Representative Raúl Grijalva. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between Grijalva's vote share and the vote share of the runner-up (the candidate with the second-highest number of votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Adelita Grijalva does not receive the most votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified statewide results as published by the State of Arizona. If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/az-07-special-election-adelita-grijalva-margin-of-victory
| Jordmeister | No | 40 |
| itsjustcheddar | No | 31.56 |
| shine | No | 25 |
| Ziigmund | No | 20 |
| fullport689 | No | 20 |
| JoE | No | 13 |
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