Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 30% on 15 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 104 daily closes on record from 15 Nov 2025 to 25 Feb 2026, the highest close was 38.5% on 26 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 38.5% on 26 Jan 2026. $10.84K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 26, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 104 points, 15 Nov 2025 – 25 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Nov 2025 | 30.0% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | 1.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Neighboring-Ereader | Yes | 357.14 |
| Ceethereal | Yes | 301.81 |
| dayziscomming | Yes | 279.8 |
The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women athletes competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events. This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that at least one transgender woman athlete is competing in any female category event at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games by February 22, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, 'transgender women athlete' refers to an athlete assigned male at birth who identifies as female. This definition excludes intersex athletes (including those with differences in sex development) whose variations in sex characteristics do not involve a gender identity different from their assigned sex at birth, unless the athlete publicly identifies as transgender and this is widely and credibly confirmed. Speculation, rumor, or unverified discussion suggesting that an athlete might be transgender will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-transgender-women-athlete-compete-at-the-2026-winter-games
| Yes |
| 100 |
| S888 | Yes | 79.15 |
| Pierz | Yes | 73.08 |
| Td360 | Yes | 52.08 |
| Spanicy | Yes | 50 |
| Upset-Change | Yes | 42.86 |
| 0x152 | Yes | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
