Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Mar 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 25% on 14 Mar 2023. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 14 Mar 2023 to 18 Mar 2023, the highest close was 25% on 14 Mar 2023 and the lowest 1% on 18 Mar 2023. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 15% on 15 Mar 2023. $23.75K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 19, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 14 Mar 2023 – 17 May 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2023 | 25.0% |
| 17 May 2023 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bold Raven AF99 | Yes | 301.06K |
| Warm-Toga | Yes | 500 |
| Gullible-Trigonometry | Yes | 25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a third US bank fails between March 1, 2023 and March 17, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ however other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Resolution source: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-third-us-bank-fail-by-march-17
| Yes |
| 0.07 |
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