Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 3 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 120 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2024 to 1 Apr 2025, the highest close was 16.5% on 13 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 16% on 12 Dec 2024. $827.46K traded over the market's life.
52 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 120 points, 3 Dec 2024 – 1 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2024 | 9.5% |
| 1 Apr 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| octov | Yes | 380 |
| Anonops | Yes | 375 |
| hEimXrmQTu | Yes | 300 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between Dec 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by
| Yes |
| 288 |
| Crafty-Version | Yes | 200 |
| GuiraX | Yes | 166.67 |
| eOcrGxZAgb | Yes | 156.97 |
| DKRYSUNBkV | Yes | 155 |
| jVbKOYDsiU | Yes | 150 |
| ImeaGgyFjv | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
