Analytics
“Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “New MAI model released by...?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Jun 30, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 15 hourly price points from Apr 18, 2026 to May 5, 2026 (Yes between 5.5% and 100.0%); 52 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 83.6% of the loaded shares; 499 recent public fills from 163 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases any new MAI model that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family. Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market. Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-new-mai-model-be-released-by-april-30-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Elaborate-Expert | No | 35.77K |
| balabalababalabala | No | 26.17K |
| Macsimka | No | 10K |
| Attentive-Progression | No | 9K |
| Steep-Preoccupation | No | 9K |
| shufian | No | 5.53K |
| Mountainous-Ectoderm | No | 5K |
| Unlucky-Meatball | No | 4.03K |
| Woozy-Half | No | 2.5K |
| ggwaltney | No | 2.42K |