Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 47.5%. Yes opened at 63.5% on 18 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 77.5% on 27 Apr 2026 and the low 45.5% on 29 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 45.5% on 29 Apr 2026. $1.52K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 11:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 11 points · 18 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | 63.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 47.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| balabalababalabala | No | 1K |
| Intent-Ton | No | 135.69 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| hesure | No | 20 |
| djokowin | No | 8.59 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | No | 5 |
| tugggjsz | No | 5 |
| Royal Harbor 217A | Yes | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases any new MAI model that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family. Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market. Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-mai-model-released-by
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