Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 14 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 27% on 18 Nov 2025 and the lowest 3.5% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 16% on 19 Nov 2025. $6.87K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 22.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 4.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 312 |
| nikolaus90 | No | 200 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 176 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-by-184
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 165 |
| Homely-Board | Yes | 141 |
| Morlune | Yes | 130.59 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 122 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 117 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 62 |
| Humiliating-Road | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
