Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 12% on 21 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 74 daily closes on record from 21 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 19.5% on 26 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 19.5% on 26 Oct 2025. $84.09K traded over the market's life.
53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 8:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 74 points, 21 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2025 | 12.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GUADANHAO | Yes | 2K |
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 1K |
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Cabinet of the Netherlands is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the monarch within this markets timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands, the Staatscourant, or the Royal House (koninklijkhuis.nl); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-new-cabinet-of-the-netherlands-be-sworn-in-by
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