Analytics
“Will a Junior win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?” is a sports prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “NCAA Football: Class of Heisman Winner”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading ended on Aug 28, 2026 UTC and the venue has not yet reported a resolution. The last observed Yes price was 48.5¢ (48.5% implied). The outcome will be settled by the resolution source; until then the state is shown as awaiting resolution, not as resolved.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 59 daily price points from Aug 5, 2026 UTC to Oct 1, 2026 UTC (Yes between 18.5% and 57.5%); 13 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 93.1% of the loaded shares; 22 recent public fills from 14 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market resolves according to the academic class of the player who wins the 2026 Heisman Trophy, as officially listed for the 2026 college football season. The outcome corresponding to the winner's class will resolve "Yes"; all other outcomes will resolve "No". The winner's "class" is the eligibility class officially designated for that player for the 2026 season by their school and/or the official Heisman/NCAA records at the time the award is presented. Where a player's class is listed with a redshirt designation (e.g., "redshirt sophomore"), the underlying class (sophomore) governs. Graduate students and any player in a fifth year or beyond are counted under "Senior." If official sources conflict on the winner's class, resolution will follow the class listed by the player's own school on its official 2026 roster. If the class cannot be determined from official sources, this market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If no 2026 Heisman Trophy is awarded, this market will resolve "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Heisman Trophy Trust (https://www.heisman.com) and the winning player's school; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ncaa-football-class-of-heisman-winner-20260803165434254
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 59 points · 5 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | 37.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 48.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 92.99 |
| resfeber | Yes | 51.03 |
| lildemon | Yes |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 27.03 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 21.98 |
| Slackjaw | Yes | 20 |
| Haradwaith | No | 20 |
| Violet Orbit 8D7C | No | 20 |
| extractive-manatee | No | 20 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 13.04 |
| Violet Maven 063C | Yes | 12 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
