Analytics
Yes is at 3.4%, down 13 points from 16% when the market opened on 19 Aug 2026.
Across the 64 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 15 Sep 2026 and the lowest 3% on 29 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 13%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 14.5% on 16 Sep 2026.
It is one of 18 markets under “Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?”.
$20 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.6K since listing. The order book holds $600.12, with a 4.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 40 trades, $53.39 bought Yes and $678.25 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 404 shares; the largest No position is BeefSlayer with 278. Ten wallets hold 93.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Dec 2026, 41 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 64 points, 19 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 16.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 3.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 404.48 |
| BeefSlayer | No | 277.92 |
| rabbit007 | No | 266.82 |
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No". A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes". Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution. If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Official listing:
6 more markets, none above 2.9%.
| romanew-1-new |
| Yes |
| 117.92 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 69.99 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 65 |
| pykue | No | 63.33 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 62.78 |
| Michael5289 | No | 25 |
| Mrage | Yes | 24.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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