What is the “Will a hurricane form by September 30?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will a hurricane form by September 30? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 21 Sep 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between August 25 and September 30, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by September 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until October 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

18 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 23, 12:43 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-hurricane-form-by-september-30) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Will a hurricane form by September 30?

Market referencewill-a-hurricane-form-by-september-30Updated Sep 23, 2025 UTC

Resolved

Yes · settled Sep 21, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$88.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 21, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Sep 23, 2025 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Sep 23, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

98%

Yes / No shares

0 / 9.97K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

410

Wallets

133

Loaded notional

$49.27K

Yes sell at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Sep 21, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

+10 pts

Range

67.5% - 95.2%

Aug 26, 12:00 AM UTC to Sep 21, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
gopfan2	No	6.73K	17.2%	$8.71K	Sep 18, 11:26 PM UTC
boblazar420	No	1.12K	8.9%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will a hurricane form by September 30?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will a hurricane form by September 30? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 21 Sep 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between August 25 and September 30, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by September 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until October 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

gopfan2

6.73K

17.2%

$8.71K

Sep 18, 11:26 PM UTC

boblazar420

1.12K

8.9%

Trader	Current holding value
gopfan2	$0
boblazar420	$0
GammaJack	$0
Lilpump	$0
Knofensa	$0
ftmerchant	$0
Skeeter	$0
lissartter	$0
9flare	$0
Deep-Coil	$0
ex0dia	$0
Douwe	$0