Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jul 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 75% on 4 May 2023. Before it settled, across the 59 daily closes on record from 4 May 2023 to 2 Jul 2023 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 75% on 4 May 2023 and the lowest 1% on 30 Jun 2023. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 68% on 12 May 2023. $13.32K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 4 May 2023 – 2 Jul 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 May 2023 | 75.0% |
| 2 Jul 2023 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LostSoul | Yes | 100 |
| Fer | Yes | 33.33 |
| Coral Falcon FFDF | Yes | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a fourth US bank fails in 2023 by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" 24 hours past the end time (July 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET) to allow for the Failed Bank List to potentially update. The date on the list must be June 30 or before for the market to resolve to "Yes." The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Resolution source: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-fourth-us-bank-fail-by-june-30
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