Analytics
Yes is at 37.8%, down 1.2 points from 39% when the market opened on 3 Sep 2026.
Across the 53 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 6 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 15.4%; a month before, 14.8%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 25.5% on 5 Sep 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “CA-05 House Election Margin of Victory”.
$60.18 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $302.8, with a 72.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 20 shares; the largest No position is Thesickest with 40.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 6 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 53 points, 3 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | 39.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 37.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Thesickest | No | 40.18 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 20.18 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20 |
The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-05-house-margin-of-victory-2026
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