Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 87%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 4 Apr 2024. Before it settled, across the 217 daily closes on record from 4 Apr 2024 to 6 Nov 2024, the highest close was 51.5% on 4 Apr 2024 and the lowest 13% on 6 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 25% on 6 Sep 2024. $686.24K traded over the market's life.
62 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 217 points, 4 Apr 2024 – 6 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2024 | 51.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | 13.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 186.83K |
| ABC123ABC | Yes | 85.33K |
| souptalk | Yes | 70.62K |
United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Montana US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/montana-us-senate-election-winner
| SecretFourteenthKey | Yes | 10.68K |
| Timpert | Yes | 6.98K |
| akikaze | Yes | 4.6K |
| Trusty-Scallion | Yes | 3.64K |
| ClassicSilence | Yes | 1.88K |
| Schnulli | Yes | 1.63K |
| Nickname99 | Yes | 1.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
