Will a Chinese AI model become #1 before April?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$54.2K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 28 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 64 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2025 to 1 Apr 2025, the highest close was 19.5% on 28 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.8 points up, to 14.8% on 28 Feb 2025. $54.23K traded over the market's life.

29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:36 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 64 points, 28 Jan 2025 – 1 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Jan 2025	19.5%
1 Apr 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Ian1234	Yes	1.04K
BabyYoda12	Yes	1K
worldkoala	Yes	999.99

10 of 29 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by March 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.