Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 13 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 212 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 4 Jul 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 36.5% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 35% on 7 Feb 2026. $317.55K traded over the market's life.
146 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 4, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 212 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 4 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 31.5% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tradeapd | Yes | 30K |
| Quiet Maven 3BB7 | Yes | 996.67 |
| Donintello | Yes | 608.88 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-ai-model-become-1-by-june-30
| Playful-Lily | No | 481.36 |
| falvon | Yes | 423.97 |
| Milcroftx | No | 352.94 |
| K83 | Yes | 324.29 |
| MarcSCJ | Yes | 250 |
| Larissa88 | Yes | 238.1 |
| sampaoli | Yes | 234.78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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