Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.1% on 16 May 2024. Before it settled, across the 176 daily closes on record from 16 May 2024 to 7 Nov 2024, the highest close was 1.7% on 23 May 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 18 Oct 2024. $16.64M traded over the market's life.
375 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 7, 6:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 176 points, 16 May 2024 – 7 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 May 2024 | 1.1% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 9.11M |
| Emerald Beacon F675 | Yes | 537.1K |
| qrpenc | Yes | 385.04K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate who is neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins either the popular vote or the Presidency in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for the popular vote will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as to who is the winner of the popular vote. The resolution source for the winner of the Presidency will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote
| sophie7yb | Yes | 243.47K |
| ABM | Yes | 168.45K |
| aldynspeedruns | Yes | 90.8K |
| ER03PT | Yes | 52.51K |
| ER01MM | Yes | 34.7K |
| ER04OK | Yes | 27.4K |
| ER02CB | Yes | 23.04K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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