Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 2 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 366 daily closes on record from 2 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 19 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 10% on 9 Aug 2025. $191.1K traded over the market's life.
71 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 366 points, 2 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2025 | 8.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 15.31K |
| rivermarkets | Yes | 3.95K |
| Deep.Blue | Yes | 1.65K |
This is a market on the number of SpaceX Starship launches that successfully reach space in the year 2025.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Wicked-Blocker | Yes | 1.19K |
| Whopping-Sheep | Yes | 469.9 |
| avocado42947 | Yes | 454.28 |
| rated | Yes | 409.29 |
| 1tA | Yes | 396.11 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 394.4 |
| cowcat | Yes | 373 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
