Analytics
Resolved No on 14 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 45% on 14 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 99 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2026 to 14 May 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 37.7% on 29 Apr 2026. $15.62K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 15, 12:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 99 points, 14 Jan 2026 – 14 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | 45.0% |
| 14 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1K |
| grinopro | Yes | 1K |
| legopen | Yes | 1K |
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-senators-will-vote-for-trumps-fed-chair-nominee-411
| Yes |
| 1K |
| syngencat | Yes | 1K |
| catgrino | Yes | 1K |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| emanuelIO | Yes | 150 |
| fm14 | Yes | 100 |
| peepeepooppoop | Yes | 15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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