Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 69% on 17 Aug 2024. Before it settled, the high was 69% on 17 Aug 2024 and the low 0.9% on 7 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 0.9% on 7 Nov 2024. $298.54K traded over the market's life.
37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 7, 3:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 83 points · 17 Aug 2024 – 7 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2024 | 69.0% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| markitzero | Yes | 20.43K |
| kamala-is-brat | Yes | 2.17K |
| PhenomZ | Yes | 90 |
| liquidtension | Yes | 51.72 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the candidate that FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast projects as most likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), or the FiveThirtyEight forecast is never released, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market may only resolve once Polymarket's main U.S. Presidential market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) has been resolved. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100").
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-538-correctly-call-the-presidential-election
| k33r0s | Yes | 50 |
| Showy-Coconut | Yes | 39.38 |
| Nervous-Undertaker | Yes | 35 |
| politibet | Yes | 33.33 |
| Kroll703 | Yes | 30.93 |
| TheMango | No | 12.94 |
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