Analytics
Yes is at 34.2%, up 4.2 points from 30% when the market opened on 22 Apr 2026.
Across the 189 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44% on 5 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 27 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 30.1%; a month before, 17.1%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 8.6% on 8 Oct 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?”.
$357.9 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $476.47, with a 64.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is awgraewrfa with 122 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 340.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 189 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 30.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 34.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 340.38 |
| awgraewrfa | Yes | 121.72 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 55.28 |
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-more-people-leave-the-trump-cabinet-this-year
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 50.57 |
| 37sfdsfsdfds | Yes | 37.7 |
| Swift Raven 390A | Yes | 30 |
| 48xsds | Yes | 25.3 |
| ghostpeople3 | Yes | 10.24 |
| IFZ | Yes | 5 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 2.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
