Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 9 Sep 2026, the highest close was 41.5% on 15 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 11.5% on 10 Aug 2026. $266.73 traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 9 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 7.5% |
| 9 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 409.3 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 59.52 |
| Anon321321321 | No | 0.07 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-august-2026-20260727150226367
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