Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 70.5%. Yes opened at 26.5% on 12 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2026 to 23 Sep 2026, the highest close was 70.5% on 23 Sep 2026 and the lowest 11% on 21 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 50 points up, to 70.5% on 23 Sep 2026. $5.8K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 24, 8:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 12 Sep 2026 – 23 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | 26.5% |
| 23 Sep 2026 | 70.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.37K |
| a5533 | No | 54.24 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-september-14
| No |
| 32.06 |
| Melodic-Salmon | No | 12.2 |
| bjprolo | No | 12 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 7.72 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 7 |
| Coral Beacon 7E5B | No | 6 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 5.15 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
