Will 1650 to 1699 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 13, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$13.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 13, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 13 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 10.1% on 5 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2025 to 13 Jan 2026, the highest close was 12.8% on 6 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 0.8% on 9 Dec 2025. $13.51K traded over the market's life.

36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 14, 4:20 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 5 Dec 2025 – 13 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Dec 2025	10.1%
13 Jan 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	18.76K
flow-trader-at-optiver	Yes	3.7K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	1.1K

10 of 36 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during 2025, based on the annual count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series/ytd/0?fatalities=true). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that year will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on January 13, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.