Will 150-174 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 20, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$26.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 20, 2024 UTC

Topic roomGovernment shutdown

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 20 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 59%. Yes opened at 27% on 19 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 19 Dec 2024 to 20 Dec 2024, the highest close was 59% on 20 Dec 2024 and the lowest 27% on 19 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 59% on 20 Dec 2024. $26.35K traded over the market's life.

6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 21, 12:50 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 19 Dec 2024 – 20 Dec 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Dec 2024	27.0%
20 Dec 2024	59.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	5.85K
Crimson Lynx 1EA2	No	40
Cobalt Horizon 3B8D	No	20
limitty	Yes	5

6 of 6 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A continuing resolution (CR) is under ongoing consideration by the US House. The passage of this resolution would avert a government shutdown. You can read more about it here: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/12/18/congress/congress-pay-raise-increase-00195089). This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 150 (inclusive) and 174 (inclusive) House Republicans vote in favor of the next government funding bill (e.g., Continuing Resolution or omnibus spending bill) the first time it comes up for a vote in the US House of Representatives. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no vote takes place on a next government funding bill by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market will resolve based solely on the first vote for the next government funding bill, regardless of whether it passes. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.