Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 23% on 30 Nov 2023. Before it settled, across the 343 daily closes on record from 30 Nov 2023 to 6 Nov 2024, the highest close was 47.5% on 23 Dec 2023 and the lowest 0.8% on 6 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 34% on 21 Dec 2023. $1.08M traded over the market's life.
54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 7, 6:49 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 343 points, 30 Nov 2023 – 6 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Nov 2023 | 23.0% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | 0.8% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if third-party candidates combined receive 10% or more of the total popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Third-party candidates refer to any candidates not running as a Democrat or Republican, including candidates running as independents.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-10-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-the-2024-us-presidential-election
| MarketMogul | Yes | 99.79 |
| Bfriedman40 | Yes | 79.71 |
| SPIRaLAurORAe | Yes | 44.64 |
| Bigdog666 | Yes | 32.5 |
| yaba | Yes | 24.5 |
| BettingonDemocracy | No | 13.7 |
| BCycle432 | No | 10.31 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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