Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 80.5%. Yes opened at 43% on 19 Oct 2026. Before it settled, the high was 43% on 19 Oct 2026 and the low 19.5% on 20 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 19.5% on 20 Oct 2026. $661.68 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 21, 7:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 19 Oct 2026 – 20 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | 43.0% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 19.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 44 |
| a5533 | Yes | 19.45 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| Tugsbank2 | Yes | 9.53 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| FaithfulSteward | Yes | 0.13 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Miami, FL records measurable precipitation on October 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for KMIA: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for KMIA, published at https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=MIA.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-it-rain-on-october-19-2026
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