Analytics
Resolved Republican on 30 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Republican at 76%. The Democrat side opened at 19% on 15 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2024 to 30 Jul 2024, the highest close was 33% on 29 Jul 2024 and the lowest 13.5% on 17 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 30% on 19 Jul 2024. $204.01K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 31, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Democrat price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 15 Jul 2024 – 30 Jul 2024, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Democrat price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2024 | 19.0% |
| 30 Jul 2024 | 24.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gipsy | Democrat | 5.1K |
| cmidujwd293 | Democrat | 434.78 |
| nouseforaname | Democrat | 118.22 |
| BoRsHiKBBG | Democrat | 105 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Democrat" if the shooter at Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, is confirmed to have been a registered Democrat, affiliated with left-wing groups such as Antifa, or had a public record of supporting liberal political causes. The market will resolve to "Republican" if the shooter is confirmed to have been a registered Republican, affiliated with right-wing groups, or had a public record of supporting conservative political causes, such as consistent support for Donald Trump. The resolution will be based on the shooter’s most recent political affiliations and activity. This market will resolve once there is definitive evidence of the shooter's political affiliations. If there has been no relevant information by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET then this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market is official information from law enforcement agencies including the secret service and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/was-the-shooter-a-democrat-or-republican
| Ray69 | Democrat | 67.54 |
| Colossal-Media | Democrat | 43.48 |
| hahatt | Democrat | 25 |
| Floko2107 | Democrat | 10.1 |
| Crimson Voyager D6A5 | Republican | 6.25 |
| Spirited-Aside | Democrat | 5 |
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