Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Apr 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 21 Oct 2023. Before it settled, across the 174 daily closes on record from 21 Oct 2023 to 11 Apr 2024, the highest close was 57.5% on 28 Oct 2023 and the lowest 2.5% on 8 Apr 2024. Its largest one-day move was 40 points up, to 57.5% on 28 Oct 2023. $8.57K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 11, 7:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 174 points, 21 Oct 2023 – 11 Apr 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2023 | 50.0% |
| 11 Apr 2024 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Solar Falcon E1D1 | Yes | 5.36 |
| RandomNameForNow | Yes | 4.65 |
| f3f3f3 | No | 0.03 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the average daily oil production in Venezuela exceeds 1 million barrels per day in either Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The values considered will be the barrels/day for both Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. If either of these exceed 1 million barrels per day, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be direct communication data provided by OPEC, (e.g. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm + https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/Addendum_October%20MOMR.pdf). Any revisions made to the reported oil production after the initial data release will not impact the outcome of this market. Another credible source will be chosen if OPEC releases do not become available.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/venezuela-oil-production-1-million-barrelsday-by-q1-2024
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
