Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 1, 2027 UTC. As of Sep 28, 3:42 PM UTC, Yes trades at 3.5¢, a 3.5% implied chance, $80.37K traded in the last 24 hours, $22.36K resting in the order book, a 2.2% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 235 daily price points from Jan 15, 2026 UTC to Sep 28, 2026 UTC (Yes between 1.5% and 14.0%); 105 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 63.3% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 261 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 235 points · 15 Jan 2026 – 28 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 10.5% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 3.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Summit 33C1 | Yes | 1.37K |
| bayareahouseparty | Yes | 1.17K |
| Virtuous-Diction | Yes |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-x-denmark-military-clash-before-2027
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 799.28 |
| Krass | No | 750 |
| bazooka1 | No | 607.38 |
| TwoTierKeir | No | 394.99 |
| rocky42002 | Yes | 320 |
| BerkshireHahaway | No | 297.01 |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 272.95 |
| WeJustBettin | No | 210.53 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
