Analytics
Resolved Trump Announce Fed on 30 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Trump Announce Fed at 81.5%. The US Strikes Iran side opened at 16% on 17 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2026 to 30 Jan 2026, the highest close was 25.5% on 20 Jan 2026 and the lowest 9% on 27 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 25.5% on 20 Jan 2026. $58.41K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 31, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the US Strikes Iran price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 30 Jan 2026, chart shows 5%–30%
| Observed | US Strikes Iran price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 16.0% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | 18.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wmccc | US Strikes Iran | 1K |
| oak | US Strikes Iran | 201.16 |
| Genuine-Cymbal | US Strikes Iran | 152.17 |
| Far-Off-Erosion | US Strikes Iran | 117.65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This Market will resolve to “US Strikes Iran” if the US strikes Iran before Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Trump Announce Fed” if Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee before the US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The US will be considered to strike Iran if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this would qualify). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source for the US striking Iran will be a consensus of credible reporting. Donald Trump will be considered to announce a new Fed Chair nominee if Donald Trump or the Trump administration make an announcement stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve will qualify. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The resolution sources for Donald Trump announcing a new Fed Chair nominee will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate. If the US does not strike Iran and Donald Trump does not announce a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-or-trump-announces-fed-nominee-first
| BossMan | US Strikes Iran | 110.79 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | US Strikes Iran | 105.2 |
| TENETENET | US Strikes Iran | 100 |
| Pure-Hiccups | US Strikes Iran | 100 |
| sky99999 | US Strikes Iran | 91.62 |
| Hanlut | US Strikes Iran | 90.71 |
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